How to Arrive at a Perfect Decision?

When solving a problem which is either hard or important or both, don't just stop at the first answer. Keep posing that question to yourself again and again. Try to look at the question from different vantage points. Reframe the question. Invert it. If possible, share it with others and ask them about their interpretation of the question.

I know this is time consuming that's why this should only be done for those decisions which are important and carry high stakes.

Kahneman writes in his book, "The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. Whether you state them or not, you often have answers to questions that you do not completely understand, relying on evidence that you can neither explain nor defend."

The quality of your thinking is closely associated with the quality of the questions you ask. The process of navigating the complexity of modern world entails dealing with hard questions.

When the weather report says there's a 40% chance of rain, and it rains, do you lose faith in its predictions?

No — you recognize that the weather is inherently uncertain and that a definitive statement of whether it will or won't rain tomorrow is usually the wrong thing to offer.

And that's where most new investors go wrong. They want a precise answer to the question — which stock should I buy?

When they seek answer to this question from any experienced and successful long term stock market investor, he often tells (if he has no axe to grind) something along these lines — in a portfolio of 10 such stocks, there's a 70 percent probability of making better than broader market returns.

"You're not giving me an answer," you'd shake your head. "Should I buy this stock or not?"

But you didn't understand that he is giving you an answer. Not a diplomatic but an honest answer.

Stock market uncertainty can't be made palatable with precise answers. And if someone offers you precision in terms of target prices or sure-shot multibagger ideas, then he's fooling you (intentionally or unintentionally).