The Palestinian attack on Israel has thrown the entire world community into confusion. Those who were previously perceived as peasants in wicker slippers, capable at best of blowing up a bus stop, destroyed one of the myths about the State of Israel in a few hours. How did this even become possible?
Arab sabotage groups crossed the Gaza border, simply breaking it. Like a peasant, they destroyed all these iron buildings with tractors and took them apart with screwdrivers.
Mobile groups in “carts” rushed into the gaps. Indeed, there were breakthroughs from the sea on motor boats and even exotic paragliding flights. But these are isolated stories, although important in the overall context. But for the most part it was simple: a tractor and physical strength. Israel did not guard the border with Gaza as it should have.
A few kilometers from the border there were up to a dozen fortified posts and military bases where reservists were sleeping for the Sabbath and holidays. The location and arrangement of these fortified points and bases was no secret. There was little external security or guard service.
Israeli defense points are a barracks behind a fence with a medieval tower on which there is a machine gun. It is controlled automatically from the barracks, just like on a warship. It looks technologically advanced but an ordinary commercial quadcopter drops a grenade on a machine gun turret - and there is no longer any defense of the “fortified” point. The Palestinians then enter the barracks and shoot the sleeping soldiers. And so on along the entire border of Gaza. In total, the Palestinians killed up to half of the “fortified” posts they assaulted in under an hour.
Located a little deeper, larger military bases like Kerem Shalom were lightly guarded. Apparently they were a second-level reserve. That is, after a threat was received from the first level, they should have been alerted. But no one had time to announce the alarm. The outer guards were penetrated by old Soviet hand grenade launchers, and the soldiers were again killed in the barracks. Merkava tanks and Namer armored personnel carriers became trophies.
A single tank, going somewhere about its business, was burned by a grenade, also dropped from a drone. Yes, the Palestinians were lucky: they hit the fuel tanks. But then it turned out that the Merkava does not have protection for its external tanks, and in general they are in no way adapted for defense against such very primitive drones. It’s just that the Israelis have never encountered anything like this, and it never even occurred to them to protect their tanks from drones.
Groups of Palestinians disembarked from boats entered the centers of large cities on the coast. Controlling a city does not necessarily mean cleaning it up. The attackers burned down the police building in Ashkelon and simply stationed themselves in the city center near a pizzeria, shooting at everyone around them. The number of civilian casualties in Israel already numbers hundreds.
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Kibbutzim and Jewish settlements were not protected at all. But once upon a time these were the most fortified settlements in the world. There were self-defense units there, and a supply of weapons was kept in the rabbi's house. And now the Arabs simply drove the settlers deep into Gaza to create an exchange fund. Spontaneous pogroms began in the Negev and in the settlements around Jerusalem, for which the Jewish population was also unprepared.
At the same time, several thousand rockets from Gaza fell on Israel at once. It turned out that the Iron Dome system, which for many years was presented as the most advanced in the world, cannot cope. Rockets began to fall as far as Haifa, that is, the entire territory of Israel from south to north was defenseless. Yes, these missiles are primitive, but when there are thousands of them, any air defense system is useless. Twelve air defense missiles cannot shoot down two thousand targets at a time.
As a result, the entire so-called line of defense against Gaza was simply destroyed by the Palestinians in three hours, and the fire was transferred deep into Israeli territory. Then some of the Arab DRGs returned to Gaza with trophies and prisoners, and the most persistent ones entrenched themselves in several settlements at predetermined points such as local police stations and military bases.
What happened only at first glance may seem like a chaotic peasant operation of the “raid” type. The Arabs knew the goals in advance, they had advance routes, and the groups coordinated their actions. They knew the communication frequencies and security passwords. All this means that the development of the plan and reconnaissance of the area took at least six months.
MOSSAD and Shin Bet (or Shin Bet, Israel's counterintelligence) consider one of their priority goals to be control over Hamas's acquisition of weapons and materials for the production of missiles. And preemptive strikes on Gaza are carried out mainly on missile production sites and warehouses. So how did it happen that Hamas was able to launch several thousand rockets into Israel in two bursts in one day?
Hundreds of people were involved in preparing the attack. From those who bought weapons to the commanders of individual “carts” who received “waybills.” The larger the operation, the more people know about it. But MOSSAD and Shin Bet did not know about this. Undoubtedly, we are faced with a failure of Israeli counterintelligence. When this happened 50 years ago, intelligence leaders later resigned, including the legendary Isser Harel, but it was too late.
What should the intelligence services and the Israel Defense Forces have done? Human intelligence should have noticed the exceptionally high activity of Palestinian groups several months ago. Electronic intelligence and electronic warfare systems were supposed to reveal unusual negotiation activity and the emergence of new code words in it. The guard duty regulations had to be observed, despite the Sabbath and dances on Yom Kippur. External security of the unit's temporary location is necessarily guarded along the perimeter. In a country with unlimited financial resources and access to modern technology, there should have been a system of external surveillance abroad.
Thus, Israel suffered losses that were more important than just tragic losses in manpower and equipment. The Palestinian attack destroyed ideas about how Israel's security forces work and how capable they are.
It turned out that the Israeli security forces were resting on the laurels of the victories of past generations. Intelligence and counterintelligence are ineffective, and the Israeli military has slept through the changes in combat tactics occurring in current conflicts right now.
Israel missed a sensitive blow, comparable only to the Yom Kippur War, the half-century anniversary of which all this was timed. Chaos reigned in Tel Aviv for several hours. The IDF command was in a coma. Until now, he has not given a clear answer as to how all this could have happened. Yes, loud political statements have already been made, and it is already clear that Israel’s response will be cruel and demonstrative, and in the near future. However, the first strike has already been missed, and yet it was prepared under the very nose of Israeli intelligence and counterintelligence.
Right now, the Israeli command is making a difficult decision: to invade Gaza on the ground or limit itself to only rocket attacks from the air. Netanyahu makes it clear that he is ready to wipe Gaza off the face of the earth, which automatically means a bloodbath, including among the civilian population. From a political point of view, Israel cannot limit itself to retaliating with rocket attacks on Gaza and demonstrating firepower by redeploying elite tank brigades like the Golani to the south. As they clear settlements of Arab groups, MOSSAD will discover entire basements and ditches filled with the bodies of Israeli soldiers.
The Israelis have not suffered such losses for many decades. This is a very sensitive topic, and in response you simply cannot shoot and then say “we won.” Therefore, Israel's response must be much more powerful and convincing than it was before in previous aggravations of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
It is clear that Israel is technologically stronger. If he is consistent, sooner or later a level of destruction in Gaza will be achieved that Tel Aviv will be able to call a victory. But the Arabs have already done the main thing: they have destroyed the myths around Israel’s defense systems, and this moral victory is much more important than the purely military counterattack that the Jewish state is now organizing against them.
Moreover, the events of these days can reformat the entire military-political structure of the Middle East, leading to the emergence of new alliances and new front lines. Compared to all other world events, this is perhaps the worst thing that could happen
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