Will India China War Occur Now?

So, what exactly happened in mid-2020 when China made an attempt to encroach land in Eastern Ladakh?

 

(1) If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.

(2) Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.

(3) They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.

(4) However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.

(5) Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.

(6) A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.

(7) We even had special forces in the area.

(8) I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.

(9) In the two decades before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.

(10) But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.

(11) And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.

(12) So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.

(13) Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.

14)  Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).

15) They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.

16) But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.

17) BUT –

18) What India did was completely out of syllabus.

19) We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.

20) The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).

21) The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.

22) Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.

23) Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.

24) They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.

25) From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.

26) Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.

27) We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.

28) Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.

29) One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.

30) So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.

31) The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.

32) They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.

33) But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.

34) Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.

35) Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.

36) Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.

37) As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.

38) Why is 2020 different from earlier times?

39) Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.

40) Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.

41) A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.

42) What next?

43) Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.

44) Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.

45) Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.

46) It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.

47) My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.

48) They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.

49) All in all, interesting times ahead.

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