In 2017 I got to know about Cryptocurrency, blockchain etc while attending a couple of talks and discussions at IIM Ahmedabad. While some touted it as the next big revolution replacing the orthodox and established currency mechanism and most agreed to it, I was somehow not convinced and was labeled as the usual contrarian and a skeptical person. I had, of course, a strong difference of opinion and advised my friend's well-wishers and clients to avoid indulging in this whimsical and riskiest rubbish being dubbed as an asset.
My reasoning was fundamental and simple inspired straight from Arthashastara and lacked the fanfare and frills of modern-day termoarrehea.
Chanakya says that any transaction as the smallest unit of a financial system must be guaranteed and assured based on a tangible material asset. In those days it was silver or gold coins minted and promised by the sovereign. Prior to that, shells and coaches were the currency. Crypto is intangible, an air asset and this denies the fundamental tenet.
The second aspect was borne out of my studies in astrology which was strongly indicating about Govts going for sure against the crypto-like financial system. The Govts across the globe will be more firm and careful with the excessive and bloated unreal money supply and will move to a guaranteed asset-based money supply and liquidity plus other measures to get to the financial system fundamentally correct in an established and orthodox regime.
This was my view in 2017.
I had strongly advised against crypto investment. I hope some of them are reading this too.
Now fast forward to 2021 and 2022, and things are in front of us. The reality of countries adopting crypto as authorised currency, the legal framework against it, and in India it was never recognises as a legal tender and the monetary tightening by US feds, etc is leading to the fundamentals of Arthshastra.
We know whenever we go against the fundamentals it's just a matter of time for the bubble to burst. In the financial system going against fundamentally stems from greed and unrealistic expectations.
Probably that's why a meltdown of Cryptocurrency was or is inevitable.
My recommendation continues unabated, Pl stay from this gambling den. While the house never loses the gamblers mostly do and most of them will lose.
My future recommendations for investors based on my Astro analysis(pl consider only if you have faith in this science else ignore it completely)
1. Assets with the highest assurance are best.
2. Phenomenal returns may not be possible unless a good company was battered.
3. Companies with strong governance and compliance will be winners hands down like TATAs etc in India.
4. PSUs and govt monopoly sectors will see robust growth. We have seen a rally in a few of them.
5. Ports and Shipping will do well in the next 3 yrs.
6. Logistics and Mass Surface transport sector will definitely grow, like Railways, etc.
7. Indian Economy will outperform everyone in the next 6 yrs for sure.
8. Roads and related infrastructure for logistics movement will also grow.
9. Strong and ethical companies will give better returns means consistent ones and without fear of loss of capital. So look for these companies and relevant prices.
10. Banking and Finance companies will do well. Look for ethical ones.
11. Avoid getting rich quick companies, they will wipe out your investment.
12. Start-ups with huge and bloated valuations are mines. Don't even go near them. While discussing the case study of Uber in IIMA it was clear that this is not a sustainable model.
So future valuation-based stock picking must be avoided at all costs. Don't touch such companies.
13. Organic food and Ayurveda companies will be the flavor of the decade. Patanjali is one such company as on date and Baba Ramdev promoted ones will surely do well but please see the valuations properly and then buy. Similar companies can also be seen.
14. Financial sector companies with bad reputations and unethical practices will be wiped out. In general, those companies which are unethical will suffer for sure so pl be wary of investment there.
15. Companies with a focus on the welfare of the poor, and needy and providing cheaper but good quality healthcare and education will win hands down. Like in education, we have seen Physicswala doing well but Byjus facing the heat. One can extend this logic to many recent IPOs having superfluous valuations.
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