Through this post we will list 4 events which can make or break the market. It is a Heavily eventful week on card;
Firstly; on Monday if Adani has to recover then it has put all its might in making sure that Adani stocks get in upper circuit so that sellers will have to run for cover. Watch pre opening Adani group share price for any indication of upper circuit.
Secondly; Ambuja cement shares are pledged and Adani has to make sure that it's price donot fall below the pledged price else massive selling will come in ambuja shares due to selling by banks where shares are pledged in ambuja cement. Alternately Adani has to bring more funds for margin call.
We feel that since Adani has given a statement that FPO will sail through at original price means that he has worked out some via media with financiers. This is a bold statement as the facts will be laid bare in two days as FPO closing date is Tuesday.
So keep eye on Ambuja cement and Adani shares and if it gets in upper circuit then it is highly possible that blind selling will stop.
However, if Adani shares open with a slight gap up only then you can see again selling to commence at higher levels.
1) Tuesday - Fin Nifty expiry + Adani FPO cut off (if FPO sails through at allocated price without lower price revision, then short sellers will have to run for cover)
2) Wednesday - Budget as it is going to be a populist budget as next year is going to be a vote on account being election year. Here if Adani requests FM, to not to bring any negative news for mkt, then we may see mkt stabilise)
3) Thursday - Nifty / BNF expiry + Fed ( Fed is meeting outcome is likely to be a non event as qtr percent rate hike is likely)
4) Friday - SBI results
Not to mention, uncertainty due to Adani matter and FPO cut off date is of Tuesday which will add fuel to the fire.
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What to do on Monday?
Fiis has sold 6000 Cr on Friday and more than 30000 Crore in Jan 2023 so far and this selling is unabated. So, the market has corrected deeply. Now it looks in bearish territory. It is difficult to see a strong up move but since it's budget week, trade with caution. The IV will be increasing and we can see some volatility in the market. Preferably No longs for now. Make sure that you exit positions before budget.
Trades for Monday
Intraday: Look for selling opportunities if the market goes up. Market will remain sell on rise.
Positional: Don't jump now. Wait for a better entry. If you have shorts then hold.
Donot look for value buying in Adani group stocks because once a stock falls from 15th floor chances of recovery is remote and will be a slow and steady process.
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