First, they must have strategized that India needs to be shown in its place.
They did not factor in the resoluteness and audacity of India.
Secondly, they underestimated the global backlash and aggressive US action
in S China.
Their strategists are totally confused about India. Their three strategic goals vis a vis India are so contradictory that they are funny. First, they say India should not consider China as Enemy # 1 replacing Pakistan. Yet they will muscle into Indian territory. Second, they say they should keep
India occupied in Kashmir and S Asia ( through covert action). The 2nd
point goes against the 1st point. Third, they say India should not embrace
The USA against China. The 3rd goes against 1 & 2.
End of the day I am reminded of old corporate wisdom that strategy is overrated, its culture that trumps strategy. China thinks that India will think like it does i.e. cow down to power posturing, will try to save face.
They factored both these into their strategy. They should instead have understood that Indian soldiers are defending civilization and are highly motivated. They also did not understand that Indian ethos has changed.
Behind all the conciliatory posturing hard preparations were underway.
Since their assumption was India will be cowed down, the conciliatory noises by Indian leadership were believed by them.
There are two options now for China. One is to react to the provocation. In
which case India will use tactical measures in Ladakh and Malaca and
strategic measures in combining with US-led coalition
The second is to withdraw and lick their wounds. In which case, there will be an internal backlash against CCP
They are in a tangle and we should use the opportunity to convert LAC to International boundary to let the dispute be resolved forever.
The ultimate snub will be when Bollywood makes a movie called Black Top
with Mandarin subtitles.
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