Important Factsheet
1. Why market has bounced back in April to June Quarter?
As per Wikipedia Indian economy ranks 5th in the world with an estimated GDP of $3.2 trillion. India has registered GDP growth of 3.3% in the first quarter of June 2020 which is very good GDP growth considering lockdown in most states in the first quarter. Another major reason for the rise of GDP is mainly more than 60% of Indian GDP comprises of the service sector and the service sector has performed very well even during the lockdown. Even the manufacturing sector was partly open in most of this period. When we compare with the pre lockdown period India GDP growth rate was roughly near 5.5% so we look at 3.3% for Q12020 was a very good no.(Positive)
2. What could be more challenging in the future?
In the present recessionary economy, low demand, rising NPA's maybe little challenge for the year going forward. It is important to note that the manufacturing sector contribution to GDP is only 25% (Negative)
3. Why the service sector is performing well?
Indian IT and exports may be thrived due to
a. Contribution of the dollar from levels of 69 years back to present levels of 74.93 and we expect it may further rise towards the level of 80.
b. Performance of the service sector is mainly contributed by the IT sector, digitalisation of economy, etc (Positive)
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4. Why gold is rising?
Gold is rising as global fund managers are parking funds in gold. This happens only in recessionary and economic crisis situations. Gold has moved from the levels of 36000 years back to present levels of 55000 and it may further rise to 65000 from present levels. (Strongly negative for the economy). You can check the reason why silver is rallying more than gold here.
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