Why US official jobs and unemployment rate numbers are too good to be true & Why it comes at a really unfortunate time?

According to the official Labor Department report on jobs and unemployment for May, the economy added 2.5 million workers in the month and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% (from 14.7% in April.) Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 6 million drop in jobs.

A huge surprise and stocks rallied on the numbers.

However, there's good reason to doubt these numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at the Labor Department flagged some of those problems even as it issued the figures. The market was happy with the headlines.

The jobs and unemployment figures are the result of two very different processes. And right now there are problems with both the jobs and unemployment data.

First, there's a persistent problem in the way that jobs are being counted in the payroll data being reported by companies Some workers, nobody knows how many but its suspected that there total is significant, are being counted as on payroll–that is employed as far as the jobs numbers are concerned, when their hours or pay are actually minimal. Certainly less than back before the coronavirus recession. In other words, people are going back to work for job counting purposes but they're not making much money at those jobs. That's a problem since it's wages that get spent to drive the economy not the number of jobs on paper. The last report from the Federal Reserve showed a huge drop in income from wages. That income hole was filled by government payments that included enhanced unemployment benefits (which expire on July 31) and those $1200 checks (one-time only so far.) Yesterday's report showed that workers' average hourly earnings fell by 1.0%, a rate well below the economist consensus.

Second, the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households that is used to calculate the unemployment rate has developed several response problems. First the rate of response to the survey has dropped by 15% in the most recent months. That makes the results less robust. Second, respondents to the survey have miss-classified workers. "As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff," the Labor Department said in it's report."However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue."

Here's the important take away: "If workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to 'other reasons' (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis)."

In other words the unemployment rate could/should have been 16.3% and not the reported 13.3%. That would still be much better than projected by economists but higher rather than lower than the unemployment rate of 14.7% in April.

And that markets rallied with the Standard & Poor's 500 climbing and the NASDAQ climbing to near a new record high.

But one could wish this hadn't happened yesterday. 11Because the jobs numbers and the stock market rally–we're now down only 6% from the S&P 500s February high–mean that its now really really unlikely Congress take any of the actions we need to make sure any economic recovery is sustained and not simply a blip in the pan.

Before the good news, Mitch McConnell and the Republican-controlled Senate had been saying that they didn't want to pass another coronavirus rescue package until they saw how the last few had worked. No renewal of the enhanced unemployment benefits, no second cash payment to individuals, no funding for states and cities that had seen tax revenues plunge.

The White House had been showing signs that it would like another package ahead of the November elections. Maybe as much as another $1 trillion. And McConnell had said that maybe $1 trillion might be possible. (The House has already passed a $3 trillion package.)

Now?

The case for delay is, I'm sure, even stronger in the Senate and I'd expect the White House will push less forcefully for a coronavirus package. 16Already McConnell's schedule promised no action before July 20.

And that means that the trickle of layoffs at state and city governments will become a torrent. It's hard to generate a sustained economic recovery when the government sector is laying off hundreds of thousands of workers.

The good news also makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will pull more stimulus out of its hat. The central bank is already near the point where all new initiatives will require a trip into unexplored territory. The Fed sounded like it was willing to go where few central banks have gone before when it felt it was confronting a real emergency. Now? I think the Fed will be happy to sit back, like the Senate, and wait to see what happens. unemployment to 19.7%.

Master the art of stock trading as stock markets are going to regain their lost levels and you can be a multi-millionaire using the short terms tock tips or using the market tips for tomorrow and be ready to face the recession.