Answer: This question reminds me of the following story.
A man was convicted of committing a heinous crime. He was given three options.
- Eat 100 onions
- Get beaten by rod 100 times
- Pay 100 gold coin as fine
The man thought for a while and chose to eat 100 onions.
However, he was almost fainting when he ate just 60 onions. He knew that he can't eat any more or else he would die.
He, therefore, asked the judge to punish him by beating 100 times.
However, when he was beaten by the rod just 80 times, he fainted. When he got his conscious, he whole body was swollen and paining like hell. He could not take anymore beating.
So he decided to pay 100 gold coins as fine.
It appears to me that India may actually end up doing the same.
India declared its first 21-day lock-down on 24th March, when it has around 500 cases hoping that lock-down would break the chain of corona-virus in 21 days. However, the number of cases multiplied by more than 10 times during the period. Hence, the lock-down was further extended for another 3 weeks till May 3.
However, the cases are not coming down and we have around 40,000 cases by May 3.
The government has extended it even further.
There is no doubt about the sincerity and commitment of the Government of India about reducing the death rates in India as compared to many other countries like the USA.
The major problem is that the Government doesn't have any exit strategy.
WHO has already indicated that the Covid-19 is not likely to disappear soon and we may have it for quite some time.
Acuite Ratings & Research Ltd earlier this month estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost USD 4.64 billion (over Rs 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will result in a GDP loss of almost USD 98 billion (about Rs 7.5 lakh crore).
It means India is losing over Rs 10,00,000 crores per month as income and over Rs 2,00,000 crores as revenue per month.
If it continues for longer period of 6 months to one year even in the diluted form, India's economy is likely to collapse as several thousand companies and businesses would go bankrupt and hundreds of million people would lose jobs.
You should not be surprised if the government fails to give even the salaries to the government employees in time. It has already stopped the hike in Dearness Allowance (DA) for one and a half years since January 2020 and almost forced all Central government employees to donate one day of
salary to PM CARE for one year.
How long can a government take care of the poor if a billion people are trapped inside their homes doing nothing?
If our economy is in bad shape and the virus still survives, and no cure is found, we won't be able to protect even human life after some time.
Hence, we may end up having the worst of all.
It is important to understand that a large number of people (up to 50 times more than official estimates) may already have this virus without even knowing about it. According to research published in NATURE, the mortality rate is about 0.1%-0.2% only. It means that almost 99.8–99.9% would recover.
India must behave in a prudent manner balancing life, jobs, economy else we may end up losing all in the long run even if we seem to be succeeding right now as compared to many other countries.
It is time to show courage and start businesses and public activities gradually after taking all due precautions like it is done in many other countries like Germany, South Korea, Singapore, the USA and even in China.
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