1)Q-Will virus disappear after extended lockdown?
Ans- NO. ( If so, it would not have re-emerged in china after 3 months of rigorous lockdown.)
2) Q-When will the "virus effect" disappear?
Ans -When at least 40-60 % population gets exposure and acquires immunity by means of natural bodily defense mechanisms (known as "Herd immunity". Google it to understand more about herd immunity.)
3) Q-What is a problem with getting herd immunity?
A- We don't know how many patients will die. (But surely it will be less the amount of people dying due to road traffic accidents, tuberculosis, cancer and other medical conditions daily.)
4) Is there any other way to increase or get the " herd immunity"?
Ans -yes. ( By the means of a vaccine. Just like in case of polio, which was eradicated by stimulating a human immune response to poliovirus by giving a vaccine)
4b) Do we have a vaccine for the coronavirus at present?
Ans -No (since no vaccine is currently available. Trials are ongoing. But no breakthrough development yet)
And extending "total lockdown" till vaccine is developed ( approx 9 to 18 months), is absolutely not possible as well as not practical.
5) What are high-risk people for Mortality-
Ans.
a) Those aged more than 60 years
b) Those with comorbid conditions Diabetes, hypertension, cardiac problems, renal failure.
c) Healthcare professionals due to increased viral load
6) Q-What is ( should be) our ultimate aim?
Ans.
a)Decrease number of deaths
b)Control the (high load)virus transmission (to vulnerable population) till it is no more a Public Health Problem(again concept of herd immunity will apply)
c) reduce the morbidity and Mortality by early intervention by strengthening the health system
7) Q-Then what should be the solution to increasing Herd immunity without increasing mortality?
Ans.
a)Allow younger people to move around freely (but not gathering more than 5 people)
b) Isolate people with Comorbid conditions, old age people (even at home ask young to be separated from old)
c)To decrease viral load in healthcare professionals do not allow more than 8-16 hrs/wk duty of any healthcare professionals actively treating COVID +be patient (Remember Spain has 10 % of total deaths are in healthcare professionals)
d) Isolate COVID +ve symptomatic pt till his two successive reports are coming negative
e) A graded and staggered restart of movements
8)Q-When to Loosen the lockdown?
( Remember - total lockdown also accounts for preparedness of health system which is not at all ready to respond to a large number of critical cases coming all of a sudden. Preparedness of govt and health system in terms of health infrastructure, manpower, and arrangement of civil supply and resources)
Ans- When our COVID hospitals are well prepared to tackle with a large volume of patients. For the same medic and paramedic staff are undergoing various forms of training these days, including ventilator operation manual teaching and others.
Lockdown will not stop cases totally, but it may curb down the new cases, will give time for the health system to prepare and slowdown community spread...
8) Q- What is the best time for getting herd immunity-
Ans: NOW.....because of increased temperatures the viral transmission seems to be slower in community, ( intensity of infection as well rate of transmission) which might not be there in rainy days or Winter. If cases increase in winter, Weather will be against us, (Most of the mortality are therein countries with average daily temperatures less than 18 degrees)
In my knowledge, Until and unless we get herd immunity (means more than 50 % population gets antibody +ve) this will not stop.
My view for the current scenario for Gujarat :
1) intensive testing ( testing of all contacts of COVID 19 symptomatic or asymptomatic patients), which is already geared up since last 48 to 72 hours
2) strict isolation ( for proven cases)and quarantine ( for suspected or probable cases)
3) measures to boost up the immunity by food intake modification (for example, warm water consumption, increasing vitamin -C, ginger, turmeric, cloves and other forms of natural plant-based remedial measures and knowledge from ancient traditional Indian medicinal knowledge)
My View on lockdown :
Clear YES to partial lockdown
1) We must get out of total lockdown and start gradual daily movements of healthy young individuals and allow for conscious steps towards acquiring " herd immunity", which will indeed be acquired " unknowingly" through immune the response of the healthy individuals.
2) imposement of 144 should be continued, not allowing more than 4 people to gather in a group, so as to decrease transmission to vulnerable people.
(Low-grade Transmission is now desirable but to healthy individuals. But, nobody comes with a tag of "low" or " high" immunity, so simply keep elderly people out of the league. Practicing sanitization measures will help in decreasing viral loads. )
3) fortunately, we are last ( at least not first )in the chain of affected countries. More developed nations like Italy, China, Spain, Us, France have witnessed this crisis and a result of which the "treatment protocols" are much clearer than before, and now there are sound guidelines for patient management than it was before 1 or 2 months. We can take advantage of it.
4) we have drug manufacturing units in our country for COVID 19. Let's take advantage of it.
5) Now govt is equipped with more manpower and infrastructure.
6) We have Indian systems of medicine, along with allopathy, let us take advantage of the principles of homeopathy and Ayurveda to boost immunity. Let's take advantage of it.
7) institutions such as schools, universities, religious places, conferences, any mass gathering shall be prohibited. Social distancing should be practiced though.
8) Indians can take advantage of a hot climate. Let's use it as a weapon. However WHO has stated that temperature may or may not help as only time can tell.
A true notion ( not hypothetical totally):
Herd Immunity
By allowing free movement of healthy individuals, along with practicing social distancing and sanitization measures, we will effectively decrease the "load of the virus " infecting a healthy human. This " low viral dose" is what is now actually desirable as it will incite an immune response and gradually month by month the entire community will develop immunity. ( Known as "Herd" immunity)
In simple language, imagine if one person is attacked by a mob of 100 people and on the other hand imagine one person is attacked by 2 or 3 people. The chances of escape are higher in the latter. That is what we need today. We need "low-grade infection" to be transmitted in a healthy community to come out of this as early as possible. The beauty of the immune system is, it will respond and form antibodies even if it is subjected to 2-3 ( low dose in true meaning) virus. They why subject it to high dose attack. So practice sanitization measures.
Now, Today, Our ( society and Govt) main and only aim should be to make the " health system" rock solid. Then the need for food distribution, catering to the poor and all such work will be obviated.
Understanding is the key. Panic is not at all desirable.
Share if you like. A thought-provoking notion for a better tomorrow.
Make use of your time in lockdown by trading in the stock market using our best intraday tips and money making will become your second habit.
Ans- NO. ( If so, it would not have re-emerged in china after 3 months of rigorous lockdown.)
2) Q-When will the "virus effect" disappear?
Ans -When at least 40-60 % population gets exposure and acquires immunity by means of natural bodily defense mechanisms (known as "Herd immunity". Google it to understand more about herd immunity.)
3) Q-What is a problem with getting herd immunity?
A- We don't know how many patients will die. (But surely it will be less the amount of people dying due to road traffic accidents, tuberculosis, cancer and other medical conditions daily.)
4) Is there any other way to increase or get the " herd immunity"?
Ans -yes. ( By the means of a vaccine. Just like in case of polio, which was eradicated by stimulating a human immune response to poliovirus by giving a vaccine)
4b) Do we have a vaccine for the coronavirus at present?
Ans -No (since no vaccine is currently available. Trials are ongoing. But no breakthrough development yet)
And extending "total lockdown" till vaccine is developed ( approx 9 to 18 months), is absolutely not possible as well as not practical.
5) What are high-risk people for Mortality-
Ans.
a) Those aged more than 60 years
b) Those with comorbid conditions Diabetes, hypertension, cardiac problems, renal failure.
c) Healthcare professionals due to increased viral load
6) Q-What is ( should be) our ultimate aim?
Ans.
a)Decrease number of deaths
b)Control the (high load)virus transmission (to vulnerable population) till it is no more a Public Health Problem(again concept of herd immunity will apply)
c) reduce the morbidity and Mortality by early intervention by strengthening the health system
7) Q-Then what should be the solution to increasing Herd immunity without increasing mortality?
Ans.
a)Allow younger people to move around freely (but not gathering more than 5 people)
b) Isolate people with Comorbid conditions, old age people (even at home ask young to be separated from old)
c)To decrease viral load in healthcare professionals do not allow more than 8-16 hrs/wk duty of any healthcare professionals actively treating COVID +be patient (Remember Spain has 10 % of total deaths are in healthcare professionals)
d) Isolate COVID +ve symptomatic pt till his two successive reports are coming negative
e) A graded and staggered restart of movements
8)Q-When to Loosen the lockdown?
( Remember - total lockdown also accounts for preparedness of health system which is not at all ready to respond to a large number of critical cases coming all of a sudden. Preparedness of govt and health system in terms of health infrastructure, manpower, and arrangement of civil supply and resources)
Ans- When our COVID hospitals are well prepared to tackle with a large volume of patients. For the same medic and paramedic staff are undergoing various forms of training these days, including ventilator operation manual teaching and others.
Lockdown will not stop cases totally, but it may curb down the new cases, will give time for the health system to prepare and slowdown community spread...
8) Q- What is the best time for getting herd immunity-
Ans: NOW.....because of increased temperatures the viral transmission seems to be slower in community, ( intensity of infection as well rate of transmission) which might not be there in rainy days or Winter. If cases increase in winter, Weather will be against us, (Most of the mortality are therein countries with average daily temperatures less than 18 degrees)
In my knowledge, Until and unless we get herd immunity (means more than 50 % population gets antibody +ve) this will not stop.
My view for the current scenario for Gujarat :
1) intensive testing ( testing of all contacts of COVID 19 symptomatic or asymptomatic patients), which is already geared up since last 48 to 72 hours
2) strict isolation ( for proven cases)and quarantine ( for suspected or probable cases)
3) measures to boost up the immunity by food intake modification (for example, warm water consumption, increasing vitamin -C, ginger, turmeric, cloves and other forms of natural plant-based remedial measures and knowledge from ancient traditional Indian medicinal knowledge)
My View on lockdown :
Clear YES to partial lockdown
1) We must get out of total lockdown and start gradual daily movements of healthy young individuals and allow for conscious steps towards acquiring " herd immunity", which will indeed be acquired " unknowingly" through immune the response of the healthy individuals.
2) imposement of 144 should be continued, not allowing more than 4 people to gather in a group, so as to decrease transmission to vulnerable people.
(Low-grade Transmission is now desirable but to healthy individuals. But, nobody comes with a tag of "low" or " high" immunity, so simply keep elderly people out of the league. Practicing sanitization measures will help in decreasing viral loads. )
3) fortunately, we are last ( at least not first )in the chain of affected countries. More developed nations like Italy, China, Spain, Us, France have witnessed this crisis and a result of which the "treatment protocols" are much clearer than before, and now there are sound guidelines for patient management than it was before 1 or 2 months. We can take advantage of it.
4) we have drug manufacturing units in our country for COVID 19. Let's take advantage of it.
5) Now govt is equipped with more manpower and infrastructure.
6) We have Indian systems of medicine, along with allopathy, let us take advantage of the principles of homeopathy and Ayurveda to boost immunity. Let's take advantage of it.
7) institutions such as schools, universities, religious places, conferences, any mass gathering shall be prohibited. Social distancing should be practiced though.
8) Indians can take advantage of a hot climate. Let's use it as a weapon. However WHO has stated that temperature may or may not help as only time can tell.
A true notion ( not hypothetical totally):
Herd Immunity
By allowing free movement of healthy individuals, along with practicing social distancing and sanitization measures, we will effectively decrease the "load of the virus " infecting a healthy human. This " low viral dose" is what is now actually desirable as it will incite an immune response and gradually month by month the entire community will develop immunity. ( Known as "Herd" immunity)
In simple language, imagine if one person is attacked by a mob of 100 people and on the other hand imagine one person is attacked by 2 or 3 people. The chances of escape are higher in the latter. That is what we need today. We need "low-grade infection" to be transmitted in a healthy community to come out of this as early as possible. The beauty of the immune system is, it will respond and form antibodies even if it is subjected to 2-3 ( low dose in true meaning) virus. They why subject it to high dose attack. So practice sanitization measures.
Now, Today, Our ( society and Govt) main and only aim should be to make the " health system" rock solid. Then the need for food distribution, catering to the poor and all such work will be obviated.
Understanding is the key. Panic is not at all desirable.
Share if you like. A thought-provoking notion for a better tomorrow.
Make use of your time in lockdown by trading in the stock market using our best intraday tips and money making will become your second habit.
You
should Trade Less But Trade Accurately & this is Achieved with our Tip.
