Developing Herd immunity by killing many is not the best option here. Herd immunity is good in polio, mumps. In some diseases, herd immunity during a pandemic is the best way. In 1918 flu pandemic, that lasted 3 years killed 2 crore out of 30 crore Indians alone of undivided India then. Globally it killed 10 crores. It was brought in by British soldiers traveling by ship from England.
Like influenza, the corona is a disease with highly variable surface proteins due to mutations of its strains.
Flu vaccine every year is freshly made, because of such changes (in our MBBS days, it used to be called 'antigenic shift and drift'). Moreover, infectivity in COVID is highest known to mankind ever, therefore it is likely to have a very high R0 (yesterday health ministry said, a positive case from a Delhi cluster had infected up to 405 people). Higher the R0, higher is the HIT (Herd immunity threshold). In polio & smallpox with R0 between 5 &7, 80 to 85% of the population must get naturally infected or vaccinated to generate herd immunity in the community. These diseases have vaccine & it took 100 years to eradicate them by herd immunity. But they don't kill many, so it was somewhat ok to have herd immunity there. Ebola and Flu have Ro between 1 & 2 with HIT between 30 & 50%. It means, if 30 to 50% of the population gets infected, the community gets herd immunity. They have fairly high mortality too.
But with so high infectivity, 10 times higher mortality than flu, with no drug or vaccine at least for next 18 months, COVID is likely to have high HIT maybe 100%. It means 100% population must get infected, before the herd immunity develops. If 100% of Indians are infected by letting it loose, it will kill 6 to 7 crore Indians within the next 2 months, with a 5% mortality. It is senseless to allow this. People 50+ with hypertension, diabetes, heart/lung disease would constitute 80% of COVID deaths, who would not have died otherwise.
Breaking the chain by prolonged lockdown, targetting, tracing, testing, isolating and treating positive cases, following all hand hygiene steps, wearing Mask by all. COVID virus is a large-sized virus that cannot enter through double-layered cloth mask and you don't need n95 for the community, except frontline staff), physical distancing ( with social closeness through phone/ social media, glasses, cough/ sneeze/ no spitting etiquette can save a life by breaking the chain.
Quarantined people also should not be exposed to each other, as none knows who will turn out positive in 2 weeks? Anyone coughs and sneezes anywhere with no warning in India, therefore mask is a must.
Nonstop minimum of 8 weeks of strict lockdown is recommended by mathematical modelers considering up to 2 weeks of incubation period and 6 weeks of viral persistence in the human body.
Eight weeks lockdown can end virus multiplication in most asymptomatic carriers too. Exceptionally, people have higher incubation period and longer viral persistence in the body. That is rare and hopefully, they will acquire herd immunity.
Breaking the chain by these steps mentioned above is the most economical way and lifesaving. It will be barbaric to let people die to render herd immunity to society. Regarding the economy, it is shortsightedness to lift lockdown prematurely. Singapore has resurgence after 2 weeks of lifting a short lockdown. Vietnam controlled well by strict measures.
The economy will get ravaged if lockdown is prematurely lifted ( anything short of 8 to 10 weeks). On the other hand, strict lockdown along with testing and isolation will save us much better. By end April / May, it will peak, by July end, it will come to a state like Wuhan now, as many predicts. Till then no business house should be restless. It is in their best interest that they feed the poor now and India can feed its people even up to 6 months. From 6 months and later the economy will bounce back with initial slowness. We can't help it .
Premature lifting of lockdown will spread from asymptomatics and those undetected to whole community ushering in prolonged misery, preventable and avoidable deaths, famine, and social unrest. Govt must especially protect farmers by buying their products and supporting them to continue cultivation; otherwise, food shortage will threaten to turn into famine in 6 months or so. Farmers, like healthcare workers and sanitation staff should be prevented from getting COVID disease. If there is no one fit to grow food, it will be a disaster.
Life is 1st, the economy is priority 2. If people die by blunders of leaders, our economy will spiral into unending misery for years. Charity and saving life by controlling the pandemic by breaking the chain is the only economic investment now.
This COVID disease is not that simple given the fact that even recovered patients need not be necessarily healthy and fit or the disease doesn't confer life long immunity .
Breaking the chain seems more economically rational presently till some treatment comes up.
General Indians will never complain much as long as just two times of meal is made available to them.
The Indian government has to ensure this much for 6-8 weeks from now. 6-8 weeks because the developments in the medical field seem to indicate that some form of treatment should come up that decreases the mortality of severe cases by that time.
Yes, its a gamble..but that would be a more calculated gamble.
having gone through a heavy dose on Corona dialogue, we will suggest increasing your income by using live intraday tips which gets you good profit in the market every day.
You
should Trade Less But Trade Accurately & this is Achieved with our Tip.
