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Global commodity markets started the week with mixed performance as investors assessed softer U.S. economic data, expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and improving global energy supply conditions. Precious metals remained relatively resilient, while crude oil continued to trade near multi-month lows amid rising production and easing geopolitical concerns.

🔹 Gold remained above $4,150 as weaker U.S. employment data reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

🔹 Silver witnessed mild profit booking after last week's sharp rally.

🔹 Crude oil continued trading near four-month lows as OPEC+ approved another production increase of 188,000 barrels per day and supply concerns eased.

🔹 Copper gained on tightening exchange inventories and resilient Chinese industrial demand.

🔹 The U.S. Dollar Index remained below the psychologically important 101 level, supporting precious metals.

19:15 – U.S. S&P Global Services PMI

19:15 – U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI

19:30 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

19:30 – U.S. Employment Trends Index

20:30 – Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller

Commodity markets are likely to remain driven by incoming U.S. economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve. Softer macroeconomic indicators may continue supporting gold, while crude oil traders will monitor demand expectations, OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical developments. Copper is expected to remain sensitive to Chinese industrial activity and inventory trends.

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Nifty continues to trade above both its short-term and medium-term exponential moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remains positive despite recent consolidation. Today's session will largely depend on whether the index can defend the immediate support zone around 24,250–24,195. Holding this range could encourage another attempt towards fresh short-term highs, while a breakdown may trigger profit booking.

📌 Spot Level: 24,270.85

📌 20-Hour EMA: 24,187

📌 40-Hour EMA: 24,116

📌 20-Day EMA: 23,913

📌 40-Day EMA: 23,860

📌 Short-Term Trend Reversal Level: 23,830

🔹 The 24,250–24,195 zone remains the key support for today's session.

🔹 If Nifty sustains above this range after opening, buying interest could push the index towards 24,355–24,450, followed by 24,520 and 24,600.

🔹 A decisive break below 24,195 may increase selling pressure, with downside targets around 24,125–24,060.

🔹 The broader trend remains positive as long as Nifty trades comfortably above the short-term trend reversal level of 23,830.

Both the hourly and daily EMA structure continue to favour the bulls, suggesting that any short-term decline towards support may attract buying interest. Traders should focus on confirmation around the key support zone rather than reacting to early intraday volatility. Risk management remains essential, particularly near resistance levels where profit booking may emerge.

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Bank Nifty continues to trade within a strong medium-term uptrend, supported by positive daily moving averages despite short-term consolidation. The index is currently hovering around its hourly exponential moving averages, indicating a battle between buyers and sellers. Today's price action around the immediate support zone will be crucial in determining the next directional move.

📌 Spot Level: 57,938.50

📌 20-Hour EMA: 57,973

📌 40-Hour EMA: 57,927

📌 20-Day EMA: 57,061

📌 40-Day EMA: 56,344

🔹 The 57,765–57,700 zone remains the most important support for today's session.

🔹 Holding above this support may encourage fresh buying towards 58,440 initially, followed by 58,750 and 59,100.

🔹 A decisive break below 57,700 could trigger consolidation and profit booking towards 57,427 and subsequently 57,100.

🔹 Since Bank Nifty is trading close to its hourly EMAs, traders should wait for confirmation before initiating aggressive positions.

The broader trend continues to remain constructive as the index trades comfortably above both the 20-day and 40-day exponential moving averages. Unless key supports are violated on a closing basis, the medium-term outlook remains positive. Traders should remain disciplined with position sizing and risk management during intraday volatility.

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Dabur India has reported an encouraging business update for the first quarter of FY27, indicating a return to double-digit consolidated revenue growth after nearly three years. Stable operating margins, improving profitability and a recovery across several business segments have attracted positive commentary from leading brokerages, although opinions remain divided on the stock's valuation and future growth potential.

Nomura

✅ Buy | Target Price: ₹600

• Double-digit consolidated sales growth after 11 quarters.

• PAT also expected to grow at double-digit levels.

• Strong performance from Home & Personal Care and Foods.

• International business showing a meaningful recovery.

• Valuation considered attractive versus long-term averages.

Macquarie

✅ Neutral | Target Price: ₹470

• Domestic business broadly in line with expectations.

• International business performed better than expected.

• Margins remained stable.

• Concern remains over rural demand if adverse weather impacts consumption.

Morgan Stanley

✅ Underweight | Target Price: ₹425

• Revenue and PAT expected to record double-digit growth.

• Rural demand continues to outperform urban markets.

• International revenue expected to grow in high teens.

• Management remains optimistic on domestic and overseas demand.

🔹 Demand recovery is visible across several product categories.

🔹 International operations are showing improving momentum.

🔹 Stable margins strengthen earnings visibility.

🔹 Rural demand, weather conditions and raw material inflation remain important variables to monitor.

Dabur remains one of India's leading FMCG companies with a diversified portfolio across healthcare, personal care, foods and beverages. The company's improving international business, continued rural demand and stable profitability provide a constructive operating backdrop, although differing brokerage opinions indicate that valuation remains an important consideration for investors.

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Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. (KOEL) has received a positive outlook from Jefferies, which has assigned an Accumulate rating with a target price of ₹2,815. The brokerage believes the company is well positioned to benefit from robust demand in the power generation equipment market, supported by market share gains, pricing power and an improving product mix.

✅ Recommendation: Accumulate

✅ Target Price: ₹2,815

✅ Genset industry expected to deliver a 16% CAGR during FY26–FY30E.

✅ Continued market share gains are expected to help KOEL grow faster than the overall industry.

✅ Better product mix and revenue mix are likely to support margin expansion.

✅ Valuation re-rating may continue as earnings improve.

🔹 Strong infrastructure, manufacturing and commercial activity could support higher genset demand.

🔹 Market share gains may drive revenue growth above industry averages.

🔹 Margin expansion remains dependent on favourable product mix and raw material costs.

🔹 Any slowdown in capital expenditure or industrial demand could affect future growth.

India's growing infrastructure pipeline, expanding manufacturing base and increasing demand for reliable backup power continue to support the long-term outlook for the diesel and gas genset industry. Companies with strong brands, nationwide distribution networks and technological leadership are expected to remain well positioned to benefit from this structural opportunity.

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